Securities company perspective: VN-Index may increase again but the probability of exceeding the peak is decreasing

According to KBSV, the weakening of demand and the lack of a leading group will cause the probability of VN-Index to surpass its peak decreasing and the risk of reversal increasing.

Vietnamese stocks recorded strong fluctuations in the first session of the week. Pressure from large capitalization groups caused the index to lose more than 40 points at the end of the morning session. However, investor sentiment gradually stabilized in the afternoon session, helping the market narrow its downward momentum in the afternoon session under the leadership of the duo VIC and VRE.

VN-Index "withdrew" and closed the March 18 session at 1,243.56 points, down 20.22 points (-1.6%). The matched order value on HoSE is up to more than 40,000 billion VND, the 2nd highest in history, only after the session of November 19, 2021.

Foreign investors exerted great pressure with a strong net sale of 902 billion VND, however, the selling force was mainly concentrated through the agreement channel on FUEVFVND fund certificates (853 billion VND).

Commenting on the market in the coming sessions, securities companies mostly gave mixed comments:

May return to upward momentum

Yuanta Securities: The market may return to an upward trend in the next session and the VN-Index may still fluctuate around the 20-session average line. At the same time, the market is still in the short-term accumulation phase, so cash flow may diverge between stock groups. The highlight is that real estate stocks appeared to go against the flow during the market's sharp decline. shows that this group of stocks is leading the market cash flow.

In addition, demand at low prices appeared to be very positive when liquidity suddenly increased and sell-offs did not take place. The selling pressure was mainly concentrated on stocks that had increased sharply over the past time, showing that investors Investors are mainly worried about losing the results in the recent period. In general, Yuanta assesses the short-term risk of the general market as low.

The probability of VN-Index exceeding its peak is decreasing

KBSV Securities: VN-Index corrected for most of the morning session on March 18, before gradually regaining momentum with mixed fluctuations and struggles. The formation of a long-legged "Doji" candlestick pattern by the index shows a state of struggle between the two sides, continuously gaining a more dominant position.

However, demand has somewhat shown weakness and the spillover effect has narrowed on Midcap stocks, the main leading group in the most recent recoveries.

KBSV believes that the upward trend is still being maintained and the opportunity for recovery is still open. However, the weakening of demand and the lack of a leading group will cause the probability of VN-Index to surpass its peak decreasing and the risk of a reversal increasing.

Short-term decline may be temporarily halted

SSI Securities: VN-Index had a sharp decline despite recovering from the EMA 36 area at 1,220 points. Technical indicators RSI and ADX narrowed their positive signals, showing a clear weakening index trend. However, with a strong recovery, the VN-Index can temporarily stop the short-term decline and retest the resistance level of 1,252-1,254 points before continuing the trend.

Period of unusual fluctuations and shaking

SHS Securities: From a short-term perspective, the market is in a period of unusual fluctuations but the demand is still strong enough to form an accumulation base before the strong resistance level of 1,300 points.

In a positive case, if VN-Index soon regains the 1,250 point mark in the coming sessions, it is likely that the index will continue to accumulate before the 1,300 point resistance threshold. In a less positive scenario, the market is likely to reverse and enter a short-term adjustment period and move in the channel of 1,150-1,250 points.