Link to increase real estate prices

VARS research data shows that it is likely that real estate prices will increase in markets lacking supply, especially in high-demand real estate types, although it may be at a slow pace. more than the previous period.

Limited supply drives up house prices

According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS), since 2018 up to now, policies related to capital sources and decisions of agencies and departments in controlling the real estate market have caused supply instability. Housing real estate declined sharply.

The demand for housing is constantly increasing, putting "pressure" on supply, pushing real estate prices to continuously establish new levels.

VARS data shows that over the past 10 years, real estate prices have increased sharply. In 2021 alone, the average house price grew by double digits. Low interest rates and record high inflation are factors contributing to the sharp rise in home prices, but the core of the problem is a decline in supply.

According to the Ministry of Construction, with the current population growth rate and housing demand, about 70 million square meters of urban housing must be increased each year.

Thus, with the current supply development situation, according to VARS estimates, each year Vietnam will have a shortage of about 300 thousand housing units due to the emergence of new urban households, especially from demand.

The young generation's desire to "move out" from extended families. This severe shortage will certainly push home prices even higher. However, this shortage does not apply to all segments, meaning that not all real estate prices will be affected in the same way.

In fact, supply shortages only occur in certain areas and segments. Accordingly, while rural areas, suburban areas of leading urban areas or in class III and IV cities have enough or even excess supply, urban areas are facing pressure. overcrowding due to the increasing demand for housing.

Looking on a large scale, while the supply of residential real estate, especially affordable housing, is and will likely continue to be in short supply in the future, high-value resort real estate is growing. exists on the inventory lists of most real estate giants.

Prices will continue to increase at a slower rate

According to VARS, as a highly localized product, real estate prices will increase at different rates in different regions and markets, mainly depending on the balance of supply and demand. However, overall house prices are unlikely to increase much in 2024.

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In reality today, drastic solutions to remove difficulties in the real estate market have been effective. The supply side of the market has access to credit capital flows. However, housing lending is on a decreasing trend. Because in the difficult economic context, home loans to serve real housing needs are not people's top priority at the present time.

Furthermore, the existing supply on the market does not match the needs and financial capabilities of this majority. At the same time, "strict" and difficult to satisfy loan conditions along with a risky investment and business environment force investors to be more cautious, causing the number of potential customers participating in the market to also decline.

Difficulties in developing social housing projects including handling investment procedures, accessing capital, sales, etc. will also directly affect house prices because it affects the handover schedule. and housing construction. The longer it takes to overcome the above input problems, the more likely it is that home prices will continue to rise.

Recently, bad debt risks have been increasing, forcing banks to continuously sell thousands of real estate products to recover debt. Millions of loans with real estate collateral are expected to mature in the near future. The outcome of the loan and the way the "debtor" chooses to handle this financing can both affect house prices.

Whether the borrower chooses to sell the house or have it foreclosed will increase the supply of houses, thereby slowing down the rate of price increase in the market.

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